The murder of Mahsa Amini has sparked protests in Iran
The murder of Mahsa Amini has sparked brave protests by men and women across Iran. The question is whether civil disobedience will grow and change Iran.
![TOPSHOT - A protester holds a portrait of Mahsa Amini during a demonstration in support of Amini, a ... [+] young Iranian woman who died after being arrested in Tehran by the Islamic Republic's morality police, on Istiklal avenue in Istanbul on September 20, 2022. - Amini, 22, was on a visit with her family to the Iranian capital when she was detained on September 13 by the police unit responsible for enforcing Iran's strict dress code for women, including the wearing of the headscarf in public. She was declared dead on September 16 by state television after having spent three days in a coma. (Photo by Ozan KOSE / AFP) (Photo by OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty Images](/uploaded_images/b16d930c1cd921c739cfc1e42f22ef6d_1665219544.jpg)
The ancient fortress of Bam is one of the most remarkable places I have ever visited. Hidden behind high walls, it is initially difficult to appreciate the size and scale of this citadel. However, when seen in its full vista, it is an incredible sight. Unfortunately, the fortress was destroyed in an earthquake, but it has since been largely reconstructed.
Looking back on the past decade, it's clear that Iran has been one of the biggest winners of the post-9/11 world. While George W Bush castigated the country as part of the "axis of evil," Iran has used the wars in Iraq and Syria to its advantage, deepening its tentacles across the Middle East. With the Arab Spring now a distant memory, Iran is poised to continue its ascendancy in the region.
Persia was once a great empire.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is a country with a rich heritage and a strong middle class. Despite Western misconceptions, Iranians are a highly educated and sophisticated people. I believe that Iran has great potential and that its people will continue to thrive in the face of adversity.
It is my vision that the Iranian government will eventually be overthrown by its people. The theocracy is small and inward looking, and the Revolutionary Guard exerts too much control over the economy and other sectors. The people of Iran deserve better, and I believe they will ultimately get it.
There is no doubt that Iran is a country of great geopolitical importance. It is surrounded by powerful neighbors and has a long history of conflict with both Britain and America. Today, it is the site of an increasingly open secret war with Israel. This war is being fought on many fronts, including in the cyber realm. Iran is a country to watch closely in the coming years.
The protests in Iran are a sign of the people's dissatisfaction with the government's attempts to enforce strict Islamic law. The death of Mahsa Amini, which triggered the protests, is a symbol of the government's oppression of its people. The protesters are calling for more freedom and justice, and they deserve to be heard.
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In a country with a very large young population that has a hunger for a more progressive society and where there is a growing gender consciousness, such a repressive measure was a bad idea. The film the Stoning of Soraya M. is not only a good film but also a reminder of how the odds were stacked against Iranian women.
There is no doubt that the death of Mahsa Amini has had a profound impact on the people of Iran. The protests that have erupted in response to her murder are a sign of the deep dissatisfaction that many Iranians feel with their government. There is also a sense that this particular protest could have a lasting effect, due to a number of factors. Firstly, Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, is in poor health, and a change in leadership may lead to a more reformist-minded leader. Secondly, the "headscarf" protests could lead to a wider civil disobedience movement, with women across the country refusing to wear headscarves. This could then set in motion broader social changes. Whatever the outcome, it is clear that the death of Mahsa Amini has shaken the foundations of Iranian society.
While it is unlikely that the current protests in Iran will lead to an overthrow of the government, it is still possible that they could result in significant change. The Iranian state is far too repressive to allow for a peaceful overthrow, and so any attempt at regime change would be met with fierce resistance. However, the continued protests could put pressure on the government to make reforms, and the people of Iran deserve to have their voices heard.
There is an intriguing dilemma for those negotiating the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in the wake of the prospect of a slightly more modern Iranian state. Should they do everything possible to 'break' the Iranian regime, or risk allowing a deal and the easing of sanctions that might open up Iran's economy and society?
Recent events in Saudi Arabia may play a role in upcoming deliberations about Israel's role in the region. Israel will likely have a strong voice in these discussions, but the ultimate outcome remains uncertain.
There is a sense that long-standing relationships in the Middle East are beginning to break down, as Saudi Arabia aligns itself more closely with Russia. This could herald a decisive shift in the geopolitics of the region, with Saudi Arabia and Iran becoming increasingly opposed to each other.
I hope everyone has a great week ahead!
Mike
