Bitcoin Bets: Price of Bitcoin Expected to Fall Below $20,000

Shorters are boosting their bets that the price of bitcoin will fall below $20,000. At this stage, with the expiration date for later soon approaching and market data showing potential for further drop, it's unlikely that a rebound from here is goi[...]

On July 7, as Wall Street trading began, Bitcoin (BTC) said "no" to volatility for a third day in a row. There was little change in mood on the street.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
The following chart shows the changes in price of Bitcoin over the last hour (Bitstamp). Check it out

The next move "will likely determine the direction going forward"

BTC/USD's price made small moves following analysis from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView as it hovered near $20,000. The pattern was similar to the week before.

The pair stayed within a defined range overnight, and analysts assumed that a break up or down was imminent as a short-term possibility.

"Bitcoin's strong consolidation at $20k can't last forever, triangle is ready to break to the upside or downside. But RSI bullish divergence tho," Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, tweeted July 6.

“BTC going above $21,700 makes a higher high, going below $18,800 makes a lower low, the next move likely sets the direction forward.”

Venturefounder often refer to bullish signals on Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI) as a key reference point on low timeframes, following which BTC price followthrough is often seen.

Meanwhile, Bollinger bands on the daily chart remained narrow, indicating that volatility was likely to return.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with RSI, Bollinger bands. Source: TradingView
The following chart shows the price of Bitcoin in relation to the RSI and Bollinger bands over a one-day period on Bitstamp.

On the day, caution was the prevailing sentiment, as no one could predict what direction that trend would take.

"Ninja", a crypto trader, said: "I am not convinced by this type of price action."

“below $20.6k is distribution imo, and any pumps shall be faded... the nuke is not over.”

Ninja pointed out that on the day, short positions were increasing on Bybit's exchange platform. He advised traders to stay away from trading until those positions unwound.

The CPI's next move could be a big one.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 1% and 1.3% respectively, in the first 30 minutes of trading on the U.S.'s major stock markets.

The Bitcoin price may not see another "rocket stage" until 2024, if it follows the pattern of the previous one.

Markets were calm in the week before May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, and this eliminated the possibility of additional downward pressure on crypto assets.

Even as there is a split in opinion over how U.S. economic policy will change through 2023, Crypto Trader Tony noted that it could take longer than people expect for Bitcoin and altcoins to return to their former glory.

On my worst-case scenario, I don't think we'll see the start of the next bull run until later next year, and a new peak in bullishness won't be reached until 2024 - 2025," he wrote on that day.

“I am already positioned at 22-24k and will add if we drop to 17 - 15k.”

Cointelegraph reported on a trader's theory that Bitcoin will indicate where the latest macro bottom is by July 15.